Focus on Future Unicorns 🦄

[owocki]

Focus on Future Unicorns

TLDR - lets all focus on finding/building future unicorn ($1bn+ valuation by 2035) capital allocation tooling. Lets build shared truths about how to get there and reduce energy spent elsewhere.

Intro

Allo.Capital is in a liminal stage. We’re building something big—but we don’t yet know exactly what form it will take.

Right now, the trendline points toward three emergent shapes:

• A services business (the company)
• A fund (soon tm)
• A protoDAO (coordinating aligned builders)

We’ve already begun exploring one-off mechanisms for aligning contributors and creating skin in the game (see: Allo Alignment and Allo ProtoDAO Capital Allocation Experiments). These are useful steps. But alignment alone is not the goal—it’s a means to something greater.

The Hard Truth: Cashflow Is King

None of this matters unless we can generate apps that generate meaningful cashflow.

Ultimately, the valuation of any of these initiatives—services, fund, or DAO—is likely to be a multiple of future earnings. That means we should be orienting our attention and resources toward projects with the potential to generate millions, eventually, billions in value.

This requires a shift in mindset:

• Not every good idea is a billion-dollar idea.
• Stop doing things that aren’t high leverage.
• We can’t compensate contributors at scale until we know how to value their work. We can’t value their work until we know what high leverage bets are worth pursuing.
• • so -
• We need to build a rigorous muscle for expected value reasoning.
• That means evaluating initiatives not just by excitement or mission fit, but by:
  Expected Value = Chance of Unicorn Status × Potential Final Size

What Comes Next?

1. We prioritize initiatives not just by narrative fit, but by their EV.
2. We start developing shared intuitions—and frameworks—for what makes a billion-dollar outcome possible.
3. We could even build a prediction market to forecast which Allo-aligned initiatives are most likely to become unicorns. Let the crowd surface the outliers.

The world doesn’t need more theory. It needs working systems that fund the future. Let’s get better at spotting them early—and building them relentlessly.

Appendix: Signs of a Future Unicorn

Here’s a shared mental model we can use to identify early signals of unicorn potential:

1. High TAM – The project addresses a Total Addressable Market in the billions.
2. A Wedge – There’s a clear niche or submarket to wedge into and expand from.
3. Onchain Usage – Users are not hypothetical; they’re real and interacting with the protocol now.
4. Product-Market Fit – There’s evidence that users need it, not just like it.
5. Founders You Bet On – The team is hungry, responsive, high-integrity, and biased toward action.
6. Path to tokenization – The project is tokenizing sooner rather than later, and sharing those tokens with their constituents.
7. Decentralization when its needed – The project is made to be decentralized from the foundation. But not when its not needed.

Let’s sharpen this filter—and use it ruthlessly to focfus our capital, time, and attention on the highest upside.

[owocki]

i think once we establish were hunting magical creatures, we could expand our hunting parties to explore

1. unicorns ($1bn+)
2. horses ($100m+)
3. squirrels (lifestyle businesses)
4. decacorns ($10bn+)

and set expectations about how much resources we expend to each.

would be open to such proposals!